"The development of the photovoltaic industry this year is in line with expectations in terms of new installed capacity, but from the perspective of healthy industry development, it is not as good as expected. Since the second half of the year, the photovoltaic industry chain has changed very rapidly, which poses a huge challenge to all photovoltaic companies .”
On November 27, at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Shanghai Summit, Canadian Solar Chairman Qu Xiaohua said.
The photovoltaic industry chain has undergone tremendous changes this year. The price of silicon material has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton, and the module bidding price has dropped below 1 yuan/W. In addition, the photovoltaic sector has suffered setbacks in the secondary market for new energy, and the industry is highly pessimistic.
“From now on, photovoltaics will enter the ‘strongest period of involution in history’. Don’t expect photovoltaics to have particularly high single-watt profitability next year.” Qu Xiaohua said.
Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, believes that falling module prices is beneficial to the industry because it can promote market expansion, but falling module prices too fast is harmful.
"Within one year, module prices dropped from 2 yuan/W to 1 yuan/W, or even lower, which is problematic." Gao Jifan said that under such circumstances, the industry chain has no profits and cannot be sustained. This year, the industry will still have the inertia of rapidly expanding production capacity and "rushing forward". After that, a new round of adjustments or reshuffles may occur. If the industry chain continues to make no money, it is impossible to develop sustainably.
"Next year, the production capacity of leading companies will increase faster than the market average growth rate, and the market share of leading companies will definitely come back, squeezing other companies." Gao Jifan said.
He said that there is a certain degree of pessimism in the current development of the photovoltaic industry, which not only relies on market-oriented survival of the fittest, but also requires the adjustment capabilities of government departments.
Lu Chuan, chairman of Chint New Energy, also believes that the new global photovoltaic installed capacity this year has exceeded expectations compared with the beginning of the year, especially in the Chinese market. However, the specific shipments of some companies are slightly lower than planned at the beginning of the year. The main reasons include: first, seasonal fluctuations, especially in the first two quarters of this year, the European market accumulated a certain amount of inventory, causing global channel customers to experience significant impairment when shipping, slowing down subsequent shipments; second, the current increase in industry production capacity The growth rate exceeded the market growth rate, which diluted the shipments of some companies, but the overall performance of the industry was in line with expectations.
At this year’s third quarter performance briefing, LONGi Green Energy, the “leader” in the photovoltaic industry, lowered its full-year sales target and expected module shipments to be 85% of its plan at the beginning of the year; however, JinkoSolar emphasized that its full-year shipments are certain Strong and confident to achieve the goal of 70-75GW.
"There will be some pressure on the industry growth rate next year, which is not as good as this year and may be around 20%-30%." Li Xiande, chairman of JinkoSolar, said. But he is not so pessimistic about the company's profit performance. "Even if the module price drops to 1 yuan/W, there will still be good profit opportunities for integrated companies and companies with technology cost advantages."
According to data from the National Energy Administration, in the first 10 months of this year, the country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 143 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 145%. Nationwide last year, China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 87.41 million kilowatts.
On November 23, at the China New Energy International Expo and Summit Forum held in Xi'an, Zhao Tianyi, a China photovoltaic researcher at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, predicted that China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 195 million kilowatts this year, a year-on-year increase of 123%; in 2024 , China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 208 million kilowatts, an increase of 67%.
Looking to the future, photovoltaic companies are expanding into the international market as one of the ways to hedge against fierce domestic competition. Liu Shuqi, chairman of Tongwei Co., Ltd., said that the international layout of China's photovoltaic industry is worth thinking about.
"In the past, trade barriers forced many domestic photovoltaic companies to invest and build factories overseas, so early companies focused on Southeast Asia. Overseas markets exist objectively and are huge. Driven by demand, Chinese companies' overseas layout has changed from a passive layout in Southeast Asia to In the future, it may shift to market-oriented behavior in regions such as North America or the Middle East," Liu Shuqi said.
She also mentioned that in the future, the photovoltaic industry should consider how to achieve strategic collaboration among leading companies. Tongwei believes in specialized division of labor and misaligned development, mainly focusing on silicon materials and batteries, moderately participating in the silicon wafer and component market, retaining a certain proportion of export sales and outsourcing in this part, and ensuring that all companies maintain their position in the industry development process. own unique competitiveness.
Lu Chuan suggested that when raw materials drop to the normal range, companies will actually compete on cell efficiency and non-silicon cost per watt. This is a strategy that the manufacturing industry needs to adhere to in the next few years.
It is undeniable that even if the photovoltaic industry experiences supply chain excess and price challenges in 2023, demand will still have high certainty. Gao Jifan, Li Xiande and others believe that the photovoltaic industry will enter the TW era in 2029 or 2030.