The popularity of perovskites continues unabated and is now on the eve of industrialization.
In recent times, my country has continued to make breakthroughs in the field of perovskite batteries.
As the third generation of new high-efficiency photovoltaic cell technology, although the perovskite cell industry is still in the 0-1 stage, perovskite efficiency is improving rapidly and has great potential. Many people in the industry are also very optimistic about the future of perovskite.
With the rapid entry of traditional crystalline silicon companies and central state-owned enterprises, the industrialization process of perovskite cells continues to accelerate. In an interview with the media, the head of the analysis working group of the Perovskite Industry Branch of the Council for the Promotion of Science and Technology once described this year's perovskite industry as "the wind is rising from the bottom of the sky". At the 5th Global Perovskite and Tandem Cell (Suzhou) Industrialization Forum, many guests believed that 2024 is expected to become an "industry year" for perovskite.
It is not difficult to see that after a series of technological breakthroughs, companies are more optimistic about the mass production of perovskite. According to JD Solar’s plan, its components will complete commercial verification by 2025 and begin large-scale sales by then.
Promising prospects
Since this year, perovskite batteries have continued to make major breakthroughs in technology.
Recently, the first perovskite/hybrid BC (Hybrid BC) four-terminal stacked solar cell was officially launched in the photovoltaic industry, with a conversion efficiency of 33.94%. It can be said to be a major technological advancement in the solar cell industry.
Just last month, GCL Optoelectronics announced that the efficiency of perovskite single-junction modules reached 18.04%, breaking the world record. Four days later, Extreme Light announced that the full area efficiency of commercial-sized perovskite modules reached 18.2%, setting a new record.
Many people in the industry believe that the further improvement in the efficiency of perovskite modules will open up greater space for the development of photovoltaic cells.
Jiang Weilong, vice president of JD Solar, said in an interview with Photovoltaic Time that 18% efficiency is a critical point and can compete with crystalline silicon economically, but it is not enough in the market. “18% is more symbolic on paper. As a new technology, for the market to accept it, the efficiency still needs to be further improved. But at present, more than one company can achieve 18%, which shows that this technology is indeed promising. "
Tian Qingyong, general manager of GCL Optoelectronics, also said in an interview with Photovoltaic Time that single-junction modules with 18% efficiency are a very solid foundation for the next step of making laminated modules . “Based on a single-junction efficiency of 18%, the company is confident that it will be able to produce a 2-square-meter perovskite stacked module with an efficiency of at least 26% next year.”
Tian Qingyong said that the module efficiency of 26% is a milestone in the photovoltaic industry. 26% is the upper limit of efficiency that is difficult to reach for crystalline silicon modules, but it is only the starting point for the efficiency of perovskite stacks.
It is understood that on November 30, the efficiency of the perovskite laminated module with an area of 279mm×370mm developed by GCL Optoelectronics reached 26.17%, setting a new world record.
GCL Optoelectronics has a clear technical path to continuously improve module efficiency. Tian Qingyong said that starting from 26% efficiency, the company expects the mass production efficiency of laminated modules to reach more than 35% in the future.
This time, GCL Optoelectronics’ laminated components adopt a design structure in which perovskite and crystalline silicon are connected in parallel. Tian Qingyong introduced that the parallel scheme is a component-level stacking idea. The core of the bottom layer is large-area perovskite technology. That is to say, large-area perovskite or single-junction components need to be completed first, and then the perovskite and crystal The silicon cells are voltage matched to create highly efficient parallel stacked modules. Most of the technical difficulties lie in the preparation of large-area perovskites.
In the past two months, perovskite cell efficiency has repeatedly broken records. In addition to the technological breakthroughs of Electron Optoelectronics and GCL Optoelectronics, in November, the perovskite solar cell jointly developed by Lotte Perovskite Optoelectronics and the Institute of Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences achieved an authoritative third-party certified efficiency of 26.25%. Not long ago, the steady-state efficiency of the 810.1cm² large-size perovskite module developed by EPLED reached 19.5%, once again breaking the efficiency record for the largest perovskite module on the world record list.
It can be said that as the third generation of photovoltaic technology, perovskite has completed the climbing stage technically this year.
Jiang Weilong was deeply touched by this. He said that the outbreak of the industry was not a result of one day, but the accumulation of everyone's efforts over time. This represents a breakthrough for the entire industry.
After successively realizing the maturity of large-area perovskite laboratory technology and the maturity of continuous production processes in the past two years, the core goal of Aurora Optoelectronics next year is to achieve calcium perovskite production through the lean polishing of the 150MW trial production line and the construction of the world's first GW factory. “Factory Ripening” of Titanium Ore. By 2025, when the perovskite market matures, its products will be able to compete head-on with crystalline silicon in the market and begin large-scale sales.
It is not difficult to see that after a series of technological breakthroughs, companies are showing a more optimistic attitude towards mass production targets. I just don’t know how well it will be accepted in the market. According to the analysis of Huatai Securities, the large-scale application node of new perovskite technology is expected to arrive early.
Chu Junhao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and honorary president of the Perovskite Industry Branch of the Association for the Promotion of Science, also said that as a third-generation solar cell, perovskite has superior photoelectric properties. Although it is still in the early stages of research, large-area cell preparation has been achieved. Great progress has been made and the prospects are promising.
Capital market is a mixed bag
In April this year, the Group of Seven (G7) Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers' Meeting issued a "Joint Statement" stating that they would promote technological innovation in fields such as perovskite solar cells. This also triggered strong market enthusiasm for perovskite solar cells. focus on.
As early as last year, the capital market's response to perovskites was very strong, and there are constantly chasing suitors. In addition to photovoltaic companies such as Longi, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, and Risen Energy, auto companies such as BYD and Great Wall, battery giant CATL, wind power giant Mingyang Group, China National Nuclear Corporation and other central enterprises have deployed perovskites. track.
In November, another general was added to the perovskite battery track. BOE held a launch ceremony for its perovskite photovoltaic project, which also means that this panel leader has officially entered the photovoltaic field. It can be said that the perovskite track has been favored by capital.
When asked what he thought of this wave of upsurge, Jiang Weilong said that it is essentially the needs of the industry itself , "because everyone has seen that the development of crystalline silicon technology has reached a bottleneck, and it seems that the only way is involution."
Tian Qingyong also mentioned that in the context of crystalline silicon technology approaching the theoretical bottleneck, the continued reduction of LCOE needs to be driven by new battery technology. The only feasible solution currently seen is calcium mineral stacking. "As perovskite technology gradually matures, it will inevitably attract the attention of more and more industry giants and investment institutions, which will be of great help in accelerating the industrialization of perovskite."
As mentioned earlier, in recent times, the research and development of perovskite battery technology has been accelerating, and the iteration speed has exceeded expectations.
However, in the mixed capital market, there is no lack of capital overheating.
In February this year, Huaneng Clean Energy Research Institute issued a clarification statement regarding the inaccurate announcement issued by Aolian Electronics, which also mentioned that Aolian Electronics’ perovskite battery partners had falsified information disclosure.
Later, when some media visited the Aolian Electronics Perovskite Project Company, they did not see the company’s specific equipment and production signs. However, it had earlier announced that “the 50MW perovskite pilot line will be put into production in 2023.”
Jiang Weilong described the capital market as "circulating between overheating and undercooling." He said that the demand for technological breakthroughs in the photovoltaic industry environment and the development of perovskite technology itself have reached the eve of industrialization, which has given rise to the attention of the capital market and is also the basic condition for giving rise to government attention and industry attention. "It's just that in the hot capital market, there are more or less mixed products, including some cases of riding on the popularity."
With such high interest in the capital market, will it help the development of the perovskite industry?
From the perspective of an industry person, Jiang Weilong said that maintaining a certain degree of popularity in the capital market is conducive to the outside world's deeper understanding of the industry and the industry's better access to resources. "However, companies must also have a clear understanding that the popularity will inevitably fall and then rise again." In the process , companies need to obtain as much financing and other resources as possible when the market is hot. If the company cannot reserve enough cash before the market heat drops, the pace of development may be affected after the market heat drops. Companies need to do What is important is to follow the laws of technological development and grasp the pace of enterprise development and expansion, while adapting to the characteristics of the capital market to obtain more resources for enterprises to develop."
Over the past year, perovskites, which are at the forefront of the storm, have high hopes from the capital market. However, the hot and cold capital markets and the influx of hot money may push some perovskite players into capital bubbles.
But in the final analysis, the pursuit of high conversion efficiency is the core of the development of photovoltaic cells. Tian Qingyong also said that the investment boom in perovskites needs to be viewed objectively and calmly. He said: “We must avoid the impetuous mentality brought about by the investment boom, respect the objective laws of technological development, be calm and focused on overcoming the essential difficulties of technology, make perovskite technology more solid, and make perovskite component products better. .”
Jiang Weilong said that JD Optical Energy has been following its own pace in recent years, always putting technology at the core, and using technology to promote perovskite products to continuously reduce costs and increase efficiency. This is also the main theme of its development in the next few years. "Other things are either to serve the technology, or to develop the market for it and gather various resources after the technology matures to a certain stage."
Industrialization Vision
It is understood that the theoretical limit conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is 29.4%. After more than 60 years of development, its conversion efficiency has only grown from about 5% to 26.81%. The new technology of perovskite has achieved efficiency breakthroughs in just over ten years.
So can perovskite replace crystalline silicon and become a disruptive technology in the future?
Jiang Weilong answered : Technology has become obsolete, but companies can find room for survival through technological transformation. "The entire market is large enough, and technological updates and iterations are inevitable. Enterprises that can grasp the rhythm of technological iterations will find a survival and development model that suits them."
Although perovskite has the conditions for commercialization, it faces the problem of insufficient verification of lifespan and stability and large-area preparation. Since this year, leading crystalline silicon companies have successively announced tens of billions of capacity expansions of their existing crystalline silicon production lines, continuing to bet on the crystalline silicon route.
Faced with difficult problems, how should perovskites find a balance among the three?
Tian Qingyong bluntly said that the industry has a misunderstanding about perovskites, believing that the life, efficiency, and area of perovskites are an unachievable triangle, but this is actually wrong. "The three performance aspects of lifespan, efficiency and area, the underlying problem directions that need to be solved are not completely mutually exclusive, and may even be common. Solving some efficiency problems may also be helpful to lifespan."
In fact, in recent times, continuous breakthroughs in the conversion efficiency of perovskite and perovskite stacked cells have accelerated the industrialization process. At the same time, results and progress have also continued to be made in terms of perovskite material stability and large-area preparation.
Jiang Weilong said that efficiency has never been the only indicator pursued by photovoltaic products . Gallium arsenide stacked cells have achieved efficiency far higher than that of crystalline silicon many years ago, but they cannot be commercialized due to cost issues. From the perspective of power station investment income, the direct factor affecting the income of the power station is the single-watt power generation and single-watt cost of photovoltaic modules. Whether it is efficiency, area or life, it is reflected by the single-watt power generation and single-watt cost. Therefore, whether it is a single junction or a stack, simply improving efficiency is not enough. The key is to reduce the cost per watt of photovoltaic modules by simultaneously promoting "efficiency enhancement" and "cost reduction."
As the next generation of photovoltaic battery technology, the industry is still very optimistic about the development prospects of perovskite. Jiang Weilong said that the timing of commercialization is very critical, and he has enough confidence that perovskite will begin large-scale commercialization in 2025.
Yao Jizhong, co-founder and CEO of Xinerna Optoelectronics, also publicly stated: “Giving perovskite and Xinera a certain amount of time will definitely bring changes to the industry.”
This year is regarded as a key node in the industrialization of perovskite, and it is also the first wave of the industry's attempt to officially launch an impact from the 100-megawatt level to the GW line. In April, JD Solar started construction of the world's first GW factory in Wuxi; in December, GCL Optoelectronics' GW factory also officially laid the foundation stone.
Jiang Weilong said that in the process of impacting large-scale mass production of GW-level production lines, the biggest technical risk is in the link from small trial to pilot trial. “The area span from small trial to pilot trial is larger than that from pilot trial to mass production.” In terms of area span, Jidian’s efficiency and stability improved rapidly in the pilot stage; with the experience accumulated in the pilot stage, it is much less difficult to enlarge the GW production line area.”
Regarding the question of when perovskite will be industrialized, some authoritative organizations have pointed out that it is more likely that a GW-level perovskite production line will be launched within 2-3 years.
Tian Qingyong said that the product that GCL Optoelectronics will bring to the market on a large scale will be a 2.88-square-meter laminated module, which is expected to be produced in the company's new production line in 2025.
In other words, GCL Optoelectronics expects that perovskite laminated components will enter the market in batches within 2-3 years . As the efficiency of laminated components continues to improve, the mass production cost of components will decrease rapidly, and the penetration rate of laminated components will continue. accelerate.
According to JD Lighting’s plan, by 2025, JD Lighting components will have completed commercial verification and will begin large-scale sales . Jiang Weilong said, “Under the involution environment, everyone is looking for a breakthrough. The only possibility is technology iteration. The only technology that can be seen with industrialization hope is perovskite. From the perspective of perovskite technology itself, Starting from 2021, more and more pilot lines will be put into production one after another. Judging from the progress of several leading companies, it can be said that the pilot tests have been successful and we can begin to move towards the GW-level mass production stage."
Whether perovskites can achieve large-scale commercialization in 2025 remains to be seen.