Ideal material with outstanding advantages
As a next-generation technology with commercial application prospects, perovskite solar cells have attracted attention in the photovoltaic cost reduction revolution due to their high efficiency, low cost, low energy consumption, and rich application scenarios.
In January 2023, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Energy Electronics Industry." Among them, it is proposed to accelerate smart photovoltaic innovation breakthroughs, develop high-purity silicon materials and large-size silicon wafer technologies, support the production of high-efficiency and low-cost crystalline silicon cells, and promote advanced technologies such as N-type high-efficiency cells, flexible thin-film cells, perovskite and stacked cells. R & D application, enhance large-scale mass production capacity.
As the future of third-generation solar cells, perovskite has outstanding advantages and is undoubtedly a more ideal material.
It is a crystalline material with molecular formula ABX3 and has excellent optical and electrical properties. The light absorption performance of perovskite is much higher than that of crystalline silicon, the loss in the energy conversion process is low, and it has good light absorption and charge transfer rate. Compared with the mainstream photovoltaic cell technology in the current market, perovskite is undoubtedly in the first echelon of efficiency, and gradually shoulders the burden of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the future photovoltaic industry. The theoretical limit conversion efficiency of a single cell is 33%, which is much higher than that of crystalline silicon cells, and its efficiency is higher after stacking. Recently, certified by the National Photovoltaic Industry Measurement and Testing Center, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of perovskite indoor photovoltaic cells developed by Mailuo Energy reached 44.72% under the irradiation of 1000luxU30 light source, which is the highest value in the world at present, and the world record of perovskite cell efficiency has been broken again.
In addition, because the industrial chain of perovskite batteries is shorter, the energy consumption is lower, and the capital expenditure is smaller, its mass production cost will also have obvious advantages.
Perovskite batteries have natural "integration" characteristics. By purchasing chemical raw materials, the delivery of final component products can be completed in the same factory, which greatly shortens the product production delivery cycle and reduces the overall cost. It is worth mentioning that the cost of raw materials in perovskite modules usually only accounts for 5-8%, and the price is stable, which is far lower than that of silicon materials, which cost more than one-third of the cost in crystalline silicon modules and whose prices fluctuate violently. At the same time, according to the announcement of GCL Optoelectronics, with the scale-up of perovskite modules, when the production capacity reaches 1GW, the module efficiency will reach 17%, and the cell size will reach 2.4m², and the module cost will drop to 0.7~0.75 yuan/W.
Sophisticated technology, improved performance
At this stage, the efficiency of perovskite cells decays rapidly, which is the main reason restricting their commercialization.
In recent years, this obstacle has also been gradually eliminated by improving the stability of the material itself and finding more suitable transmission layer materials. At present, the industry has also made breakthroughs in improving the stability of perovskites. In 2021, Fiber Nano announced that its modules have passed the strict stability test based on the IEC61215 standard, and the performance attenuation is less than 5% of the initial value of efficiency.
In addition, there is also a targeted absolute solution for the problem of a large drop in efficiency after the size of the perovskite battery is enlarged. The core of solving the problem of large size lies in the improvement of the coating process. In the past, the laboratory used the spin coating method to prepare perovskite cells. However, the slit coating method will be more used in large-scale production.
The wind is surging, and the capital is accelerating to enter the market
As a photovoltaic emerging track, the huge development potential of perovskite and the rapid progress of the industry in recent years have led to the influx of capital into this new industry.
Looking back on 2022, the financing heat in the perovskite field continues to heat up. In 2022, many perovskite companies have completed financing. For example, Renshuo Solar announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan in round A investment, Guangjing Energy announced the completion of 30 million angel round financing, and GCL Optoelectronics completed the 500 million yuan B+ round of financing. According to public information statistics, in 2022 alone, dozens of leading institutions, including Tencent, Three Gorges Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Country Garden, Sequoia China, and Jiuzhi Capital, have stepped up and accelerated their continuous capital injection into perovskite companies. The amount of investment exceeds tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of dollars. There are many new entrants on the track,
Some people in the industry said, "The perovskite industry is in the early stage of industrialization, and the industry attribute has a strong first-mover technology advantage. Whoever's technology is first verified on the production line will be the first step in industrialization. This advantage is important for Its follow-up development and participation in competition are undoubtedly very beneficial. The technical threshold of perovskite is high, and it is not easy for latecomers to break through the technical threshold set by the pioneers."
With the accelerated entry of capital, the technological progress of the perovskite industry may exceed market expectations, and the process of mass production of perovskite batteries is expected to be accelerated. Galaxy Securities previously predicted that with the increasingly mature development of perovskite battery technology, my country's perovskite battery under construction and planned production capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 50GW-75GW.
At present, perovskite is still in the stage from 0 to 1. Looking forward to 2023, many industry insiders said that the industrialization of perovskite batteries is expected to speed up, and industry competition may intensify. CICC pointed out that it is expected that the expansion scale of the pilot line in the perovskite industry is expected to reach 1000-1200MW this year, a year-on-year increase of nearly two times; and many companies leading the progress of the 100MW production line this year also have GW-level expansion plans. In the first half of the year, it is expected to start the construction and bidding activities of the first batch of GW-level production capacity in the industry, and promote the quantitative change of the national perovskite industry scale.
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